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Friday, July 31, 2015 3:53 PM


Greek Stock Market Reopens (sort of); Math Perspective on the "Bailout"


The Greek news of the day is Greek Stock Market to Reopen, With Restrictions.

Restrictions

  1. People cannot draw on their Greek bank accounts to buy shares
  2. People can only buy shares with existing brokerage account cash

I supposed people could transfer cash from elsewhere into stocks but no one in their right mind would do such a thing.

And what about taking cash out of brokerage accounts, wiring it elsewhere? The article did not say, but I suspect that has capital restrictions as well.

Will the market really reopen Monday?

I suggest not.

Reader "Bailout" Perspective

Reader "AC" occasionally pings me with some interesting comments and perspectives. Here's another one.
Ciao Mish,

I wanted just to share some elements to put in perspective things about Greek bailout.

Greece is a small country with small GDP, but please consider the ratio of the bailout and guarantee vs GDP.

Greek GDP is around $238 billion in 2014 (€216 billion).

The new bailout is €86 billion. That is 40% of GDP! Should people put the same percentage to the size of the state they live in, they would understand much better what this bailout means.

Schauble asked for €50 billion guarantee. In effect, Schauble seeks a Greek guarantee 1/4 of the country's GDP. Is this reasonably possible?

People involved in the matter have simply lost the sense of proportions and contact with reality.

Best Regards,

AC
Additional Math 

To further add to AC's perspective, the existing bailouts equal €240 billion. The total bailout will be €326 billion (not counting additional money needed to stabilize the banks, and not counting Target2 imbalances of about €120 billion and growing).

€326 billion exceeds 150% of GDP.

Germany wants Greece to have a current account surplus of 3% of GDP.
3% of €216 billion (2014 GDP) is €6.48 billion.

At zero percent interest, assuming a 3% surplus every year, and also assuming every penny of the surplus goes to creditors, it will take Greece 50 years to pay back €326 billion.

Of course, Greek GDP is expected to rise. Then again, I assumed 0% interest, and I also assumed a 3% current account surplus from now until seemingly ever. The math gets much more cumbersome at interest rates that exceed a mere 1%.

Pardon me for asking, but ...

  1. Who is it that's really being "bailed out"?
  2. How the hell can this proposal possibly work?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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